Ders Bilgileri

#### Ders Tanımı

Ders Kodu Yarıyıl T+U Saat Kredi AKTS
APPLIED ECONOMICAL PREVISION IKT 450 8 3 + 0 3 5
Ön Koşul Dersleri Statistics and econometrics knowledge
 Dersin Dili Türkçe Dersin Seviyesi Lisans Dersin Türü SECMELI Dersin Koordinatörü Prof.Dr. AZİZ KUTLAR Dersi Verenler Dersin Yardımcıları Research assistants Dersin Kategorisi Dersin Amacı Introducing the structure of economic series, Getting the skill of forecasting the future by Box-Jenkins approach on the computer and by applying various forecast technics, (getting the skill of) comparing forecast accuracy. Dersin İçeriği In this course the structure of time series, forecast methodology, analysises of time series with one variable, simple technics, AR(I)MA, analysises of time series with multiple variables; econometric reason-result, AR(I)MAX technics and SAS STAT, SAS ETS applications
 Dersin Öğrenme Çıktıları Öğretim Yöntemleri Ölçme Yöntemleri 1 - it recognizes the pattern of serial 1 - 3 - 5 - 12 - A - C - D - 2 - it explains the structure forecasting techniques 5 - 9 - 14 - 16 - A - B - C - D - 3 - it applies technique which is appropriate for serial 1 - 2 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 8 - 14 - A - C - D - 4 - it makes forecasting 1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 10 - 14 - A - C - D - 5 - it controls stages of model estimates and tests the validity of the model 1 - 3 - 8 - 14 - A - C - D - 6 - it forecasts 1 - 2 - 3 - 8 - 14 - 16 - A - C - D - 7 - it evaluates forecasting 5 - 16 - A - C - D - 8 - it learns SAS STAT 8 - 14 - 16 - A - D - 9 - it by using SAS estimate model 1 - 4 - 12 - 16 - A - B - C - D - F - 12 - it compares the accuracy of predictions 3 - 16 - A - C - D - 13 - it learns SAS ETS 1 - 3 - 10 - 14 - 16 - A - B - C - D - 15 - it compares superiorities of forecasting techniques 2 - 3 - 14 - 16 - A - B - C - D - F -
 Öğretim Yöntemleri: 8:Group Study 14:Self Study 16:Project Based Learning 1:Lecture 4:Drilland Practice 12:Case Study 3:Discussion 10:Brain Storming 2:Question-Answer 5:Demonstration 9:Simulation 6:Motivations to Show Ölçme Yöntemleri: A:Testing D:Project / Design B:Oral Exam C:Homework F:Performance Task

#### Ders Akışı

Hafta Konular ÖnHazırlık
1 Forecast, the reason of application, application fields, forecast technics, forecast stages
2 Section and time series, graphs and mathematical forms, parametric comments, SAS application
3 Assesment criterions of forecast accuracy, SAS application
4 Time series components
5 Trend analysis and model forms, SAS application
6 Moving mean method, SAS application
7 Exponential smoothing, SAS application
8 Simple and multiple regression, SAS application
9 Midterm exam
10 Time series econometrics, SAS application
11 Box-Jenkins AR(I)MA Models
12 AR(I)MA Method and Definition, SAS application
13 ARMAX technic and definition, SAS application
14 Dynamic regression models, SAS application

Ders Notu
Ders Kaynakları

#### Dersin Program Çıktılarına Katkısı

No Program Öğrenme Çıktıları KatkıDüzeyi
1 2 3 4 5
1 The students are gained the ability to look at the problems of daily life from a broader perspective. They gain the needed skills not only to understand the economic problems but also to construct a model and defend in meaningful way.
2 The students are gained the ability to look at the problems of daily life from a broader perspective. They gain the needed skills not only to understand the economic problems but also to construct a model and defend in meaningful way. X
3 They have knowledge about the microeconomic theory. X
4 They have knowledge about the microeconomic theory.
5 They have knowledge about the macroeconomic theory.
6 They have knowledge about the macroeconomic theory. X
7 They have knowledge about the international economic theory.
8 They have knowledge about the international economic theory. X
9 They have ability to use mathematical and statistical methods.
10 They have ability to use mathematical and statistical methods. X
11 They have ability to utilize fundamental econometric theories to provide economic problems. X
12 They have ability to utilize fundamental econometric theories to provide economic problems.
13 They are intended to be expert in one of non departmental fields that they choose from the list of marketing, management, human resources management, corporate finance, public administration, and tourism management.
14 They are intended to be expert in one of non departmental fields that they choose from the list of marketing, management, human resources management, corporate finance, public administration, and tourism management. X
15 They are intended to be expert in one of departmental fields that they choose from the list of public finance, agricultural, environmental, natural resources, labor economics, economics of industrial organization, economics of property rights, international finance, money and banking, economic growth and development.
16 They are intended to be expert in one of departmental fields that they choose from the list of public finance, agricultural, environmental, natural resources, labor economics, economics of industrial organization, economics of property rights, international finance, money and banking, economic growth and development. X
17 They have necessary knowledge of law and related skills that needed in both public and private sector.
18 They have necessary accountancy skills that needed in both public and private sector.
19 They have written and oral communication skills in a foreign language as well as in their native language.
20 They know how to use computer programs in both daily office usage and statistical data evaluations. X
21 They know how to use computer programs in both daily office usage and statistical data evaluations.

#### Değerlendirme Sistemi

YARIYIL İÇİ ÇALIŞMALARI SIRA KATKI YÜZDESİ
AraSinav 1 70
Odev 1 20
KisaSinav 1 5
KisaSinav 2 5
Toplam 100
Yıliçinin Başarıya Oranı 50
Finalin Başarıya Oranı 50
Toplam 100

#### AKTS - İş Yükü

Etkinlik Sayısı Süresi(Saat) Toplam İş yükü(Saat)
Course Duration (Including the exam week: 16x Total course hours) 16 3 48
Hours for off-the-classroom study (Pre-study, practice) 16 2 32
Mid-terms 1 2 2
Assignment 1 4 4
Oral Examination 1 4 4
Project / Design 2 15 30
Performance Task (Laboratory) 1 1 1
Final examination 1 10 10
Toplam İş Yükü 131
Toplam İş Yükü /25(s) 5.24
Dersin AKTS Kredisi 5.24
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