Ders Bilgileri

#### Ders Tanımı

Ders Kodu Yarıyıl T+U Saat Kredi AKTS
FORECASTING METHODS ENM 427 7 3 + 0 3 5
 Dersin Dili Türkçe Dersin Seviyesi Lisans Dersin Türü SECMELI Dersin Koordinatörü Prof.Dr. BAYRAM TOPAL Dersi Verenler Dersin Yardımcıları Res. Assist. E.Elçin Günay Dersin Kategorisi Dersin Amacı To make clear decisions on production planning and supply chain management, forecasting methods have essential role. The aim of this lesson is to provide information about the forecasting methods. Dersin İçeriği
 Dersin Öğrenme Çıktıları Öğretim Yöntemleri Ölçme Yöntemleri 1 - Ability to realize the components of time series 1 - 3 - 4 - A - C - 2 - Ability to realize the characteristics of time series 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 - C - A - 3 - Ability to realize forecast methods 1 - 3 - 4 - A - C - 4 - Ability to choose appropriate forecast methods for the given data 4 - 2 - 3 - 1 - A - C - 5 - Ability to choose appropriate model for appropriate method 1 - 3 - 4 - C - A - 6 - Investigate the stability of data 1 - 4 - 3 - A - C - 7 - Ability to analyze the time series by computer programs 1 - 4 - 5 - A - C -
 Öğretim Yöntemleri: 1:Lecture 3:Discussion 4:Drilland Practice 2:Question-Answer 5:Demonstration Ölçme Yöntemleri: A:Testing C:Homework

#### Ders Akışı

Hafta Konular ÖnHazırlık
1 Forecast Methods
2 Properties of time series
3 Trend analyses
4 Decomposition of time series
5 Moving Average Method
6 Exponential smoothing Method
7 Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Exponential smoothing
8 Exponential smoothing Pegel classification
9 Midterm Exam
10 Characteristics of time series
11 ARIMA models for stabile series
12 Stabilitiy analysis of time series
13 ARIMA Models
14 Seasonel MARIMA models

Ders Notu
Ders Kaynakları

#### Dersin Program Çıktılarına Katkısı

No Program Öğrenme Çıktıları KatkıDüzeyi
1 2 3 4 5
1 Engineering graduates with sufficient knowledge background on science and engineering subjects of their related area, and who are skillful in implementing theoretical and practical knowledge for modelling and solving engineering problems. X
2 Engineering graduates with skills in identifying, describing, formulating and solving complex engineering problems, and thus,deciding and implementing appropriate methods for analyzing and modelling. X
3 Engineering graduates with skills in designing a complex system, process, device or product under realistic constraints and conditions to meet specific requirements; for this purpose, skills in implementing modern design methods. X
4 Engineering graduates with skills in developing, selecting and implementing modern techniques and tools required for engineering applications as well as with skills in using information technologies effectively. X
5 Engineering graduates with skills in designing and conducting experiments, collecting data, analyzing and interpreting the results in order to evaluate engineering problems. X
6 Engineering graduates who are able to work within a one discipline or multi-discipline team,as well as who are able to work individually X
7 Engineering graduates with motivation to life-long learning and having known significance of continuous education beyond undergraduate studies for science and technology X
8 Engineering graduates with well-structured responsibilities in profession and ethics X
9 Engineering graduates having knowledge about practices in professional life such as project management, risk management and change management, and who are aware of innovation and sustainable development. X
10 Engineering graduates having knowledge about universal and social effects of engineering applications on health, environment and safety, as well as having awareness for juridical consequences of engineering solutions. X
11 Engineering graduates who are able to effectively communicate orally and officially in Turkish Language as well as who knows at least one foreign language

#### Değerlendirme Sistemi

YARIYIL İÇİ ÇALIŞMALARI SIRA KATKI YÜZDESİ
AraSinav 1 50
KisaSinav 1 12
Odev 1 12
KisaSinav 2 13
Odev 2 13
Toplam 100
Yıliçinin Başarıya Oranı 50
Finalin Başarıya Oranı 50
Toplam 100

#### AKTS - İş Yükü

Etkinlik Sayısı Süresi(Saat) Toplam İş yükü(Saat)
Course Duration (Including the exam week: 16x Total course hours) 16 3 48
Hours for off-the-classroom study (Pre-study, practice) 16 1 16
Mid-terms 1 10 10
Quiz 2 5 10
Assignment 2 10 20
Final examination 1 10 10
Toplam İş Yükü 114
Toplam İş Yükü /25(s) 4.56
Dersin AKTS Kredisi 4.56
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